Moderna’s year-to-date surge follows a surprise Q1 revenue increase, but long-term fundamentals remain weak. Full-year 2025 revenue fell to $1.94 billion, and 2026 guidance targets up to 10% growth from that depressed base. About 80% of Q1 2026 sales came from outside the U.S., and the franchise is still largely dependent on a single COVID product. Cash is projected to decline from $8.1 billion at end of 2025 to $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion by end of 2026, with a widened Q1 GAAP net loss. Upcoming catalysts are described as binary rather than steady earnings drivers. Gilead is presented as a rotation alternative with a forward earnings multiple of 15, a 2.46% dividend yield, and strong free cash flow. The HIV franchise grew, Biktarvy revenue rose, gross margins improved, and Biktarvy patent protection was extended to April 2036.
"A cash-flow machine generating real free cash flow. The HIV franchise grew 10% to $5.03 billion in Q1 2026, with Biktarvy alone bringing in $3.36 billion for the quarter. Patent protection on Biktarvy was extended to April 2036, meaning no major loss of exclusivity for a full decade. Non-GAAP product gross margin expanded 200 basis points to 87.5%, and Q1 free cash flow hit $2.427 billion, up 237.08% year over year."
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