Nvidia Earnings Don't Matter This Time

Option traders expect Nvidia’s market cap to move by about $355 billion around earnings, with the current market cap at $5.3 trillion. The company forecast quarterly earnings of $78 billion, plus or minus 2%, and indicated that China revenue should not be included in the calculation. The prior quarter’s revenue rose 73% year over year to $68.1 billion, which may serve as a reference point. Near-term outcomes may vary because AI infrastructure timelines, data center construction delays, and the pace of product success from major AI partners are difficult to forecast. Nvidia’s performance could be uneven across the year, with slow periods followed by rapid rebounds. Broader AI leaders have also shown large, shifting stock moves, limiting predictability.

"Currently, option traders are betting that Nvidia's ( NASDAQ: NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) market cap could rise or fall by $355 billion based on earnings. Nvidia's current market cap is $5.3 trillion. The stock is up 18% so far this year, compared to the S&P 500, which is up 7%."

"Nvidia has signaled to Wall St. what investors should expect from earnings. It has forecast the figure for the quarter to be announced today at $78 billion, plus or minus 2%. And it said investors should assume that revenue from China will not be included in the calculation. Investors may also use the revenue from the previous quarter as a guide. It rose 73% year over year to $68.1 billion."

"Investors should not read too much into Nvidia's new numbers. The AI industry is in a state of flux that Nvidia cannot control. Delays in data center construction are beyond its control. The pace of success of products from companies such as OpenAI and Microsoft can't be calculated. All of this is to say, Nvidia could have a slow quarter that immediately picks up for the rest of the year. It would have a home run quarter that slows for the rest of 2026. The AI market is not fickle, but advances are uneven."

"All of this is to say that the massive business fluctuations and the rapid advances in AI features undermine the ability to predict the effects over the next few months, or even years-beyond any reasonable analysis. None of this is to say that Nvidia will not be at the center of the AI revolution. Its positi"

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