AC Milan’s final-round match determines their Champions League qualification. A win would definitely secure qualification, while a draw could also be sufficient. Milan are level on points with Roma at 70, with Como and Juventus behind on 68. Qualification depends on other teams’ results: if Como and Juventus both fail to win, Milan’s outcome matters more. Milan can still finish in the top four on 71 points in multiple combinations, largely due to head-to-head results against Roma and other tied teams. Several draw scenarios keep Milan above rivals through head-to-head advantages, while some outcomes involving Como and Juventus can change standings and potentially drop Milan out.
"For things to get interesting tonight, one of Como and Juventus need to win, otherwise it doesn't matter how it goes for Milan and Roma. Equally, if the Rossoneri and the Giallorossi get their jobs done, then the positions will remain as they are now."
"Now, with that out of the way, Milan could still qualify for the big competition with a draw tonight. Gazzetta dello Sport included a very good image this morning, showing how the league standings would look if three or four teams were to finish on 71 points. As you can see in the image above, Milan would finish in the top four in all of those scenarios, which is thanks to their record in the H2H games."
"Just to be extra clear, taking the first scenario as an example, that would happen if Milan and Roma both draw, while Juve and Como both win. The second scenario, meanwhile, would happen if Milan and Roma both draw, while Como win and Juventus draw/lose. Those are not the only scenarios in which a draw would be enough, though."
"Let's say Roma and Como win, while Juventus only get a draw. Then Milan and Como would be on the same points, but thanks to the H2H advantage, the Rossoneri would finish above. Swapping Como for Juventus, on the other hand, would see Milan drop out of the top four as the H2H record is"
Read at SempreMilan
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