The conflict in Iran is entering its fourth month, with comparisons to past US wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam. The humanitarian, economic, and geopolitical consequences are expected to be more permanently damaging than earlier disasters. An urgent question is who can stop further US bombing plans. The US president has limited options: expand illegal bombing to force surrender or accept a negotiated compromise that falls short of eliminating Iran’s nuclear program. Neither option is attractive, since bombing cannot remove Iran’s resilience and is reportedly ineffective, with most missile stockpiles intact. Threats to break ceasefires face opposition from Gulf states, most allies, and most US voters. A peace deal aligned with the 2015 nuclear pact would likely be seen as a major strategic defeat for the US.
"With the deadlocked war in Iran about to enter its fourth month, loose comparisons with previous US quagmires in Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam are bandied about. When the conflict began, warnings of another forever war seemed exaggerated. No longer. As matters stand, the negative international humanitarian, economic and geopolitical fallout from this fiasco looks set to prove more permanently globally damaging than any of those past US-made disasters."
"Either he resumes the illegal bombing of Iran on an even bigger scale, brazenly threatening war crimes in hopes of forcing surrender; or else he accepts a negotiated compromise that falls embarrassingly short of his initial aims, including eliminating Iran's nuclear programme, and leaves an angry, more hardline, strategically strengthened regime in power. Neither choice is attractive or tenable for Trump."
"He and his fanatical sidekick, Pete Hegseth, should know by now that bombing cannot blow away Iran's defiance and resilience. It is not even militarily effective: 70% of Iran's missile stockpile reportedly remains intact. In any case, Trump's threats to break the ceasefire, like his aborted Project Freedom in the strait of Hormuz, are opposed by Gulf states fearful of more retaliatory attacks, by Washington's allies, Israel excepted and by most US voters."
"A peace deal, with add-ons, that is broadly in line with Barack Obama's 2015 nuclear pact with Tehran, which Trump foolishly wrecked and is now the most Iran seems willing to offer, would rightly be counted an abject Trump failure. It would represent a landmark US strategic defeat with significant implications for the glo"
#iran-conflict #us-foreign-policy #nuclear-negotiations #middle-east-security #ceasefire-and-escalation
Read at www.theguardian.com
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