The U.S. strategy toward Cuba resembles the approach used against Venezuela, including an oil blockade, increased U.S. military presence, federal charges, and repeated threats of intervention. Experts say similar pressure campaigns do not guarantee similar results because Cuba differs from Venezuela in key ways. If Cuba’s leadership were removed, there is no clear successor likely to cooperate with the Trump administration, unlike Venezuela where Nicolás Maduro was captured and Delcy Rodríguez took over with U.S. approval. Cuban officials claim there is no equivalent figure to Rodríguez. The U.S. military footprint in the Caribbean is smaller than the buildup near Venezuela, and indicting a 94-year-old former leader is less impactful than charging a sitting president to justify capture.
"“President Trump viewed the Venezuelan intervention as a fantastic success,” said Brian Finucane, a senior adviser with the International Crisis Group and a former State Department lawyer. “And he's sought to replicate the Venezuela model elsewhere, including in Iran. But obviously, Cuba, like Iran, is a very different country than Venezuela.”"
"If the U.S. were to depose Cuba's leadership, there is no obvious successor who would work with the Trump administration, Finucane said. That is unlike Venezuela, where the U.S. captured leader Nicolás Maduro in January and his second in command, Delcy Rodríguez, stepped in with U.S. approval and remains in power. Cuban officials, who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, say “there is no Delcy in Cuba.”"
"The number of American forces in the Caribbean Sea now is also smaller and far less foreboding than the massive military buildup off Venezuela's coast in the months ahead of Maduro's ouster, Finucane said. Plus, an indictment against a 94-year-old former Cuban leader - Raúl Castro - is less impactful than charging Venezuela's sitting president with drug trafficking and using that to justify his capture."
#us-cuba-relations #us-foreign-policy #venezuela-crisis #military-intervention-threats #economic-sanctions
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