How ISWAP and Boko Haram are reshaping the Lake Chad Basin

Communities in the Lake Chad Basin face increasing violence alongside economic hardship and weak governance. The killing of Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, a Nigerian national and second-in-command of ISIL, by United States and Nigerian forces reflects counterterrorism progress but also persistent insecurity. Al-Minuki operated from a compound near Lake Chad, an active theater for armed groups. Violence has surged as ISIL’s West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram’s rival faction, Jama’at Ahl al-Sunna li al-Da’wa wa al-Jihad (JAS), expand operations. Boko Haram rebuilt while security agencies focused more on ISWAP, including its drone capabilities. The resurgence also reflects broader challenges in coordination and intelligence-sharing, with porous borders enabling movement of jihadi elements and weapons across the Sahel.

"The killing of Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, the second-in-command of ISIL (ISIS), by United States and Nigerian forces marks a notable achievement for counterterrorism. Yet for analysts observing the Lake Chad Basin, it highlights how persistent and complex insecurity in the region has become. Al-Minuki, a Nigerian national from Borno State, was operating out of a compound near Lake Chad, at the centre of one of the world's most active armed group theatres."

"His choice of northeastern Nigeria as a base underscores the conditions driving a renewed surge of violence by both the ISIL affiliate in West Africa Province (ISWAP) and its rival, Jama'at Ahl al-Sunna li al-Da'wa wa al-Jihad (JAS), more widely known as Boko Haram. Perhaps equally significant is the parallel resurgence of Boko Haram, which quietly rebuilt itself while security agencies primarily focused on the more dominant ISWAP."

"While regional forces focused on countering ISWAP's threats, partly due to the group's advanced drone capabilities, Boko Haram appears to have taken advantage of the relative attention on its rival to regroup, Nimi Princewill, a security expert in the Sahel, told Al Jazeera. This, in turn, seems to have enabled both factions to rebuild strength and carry out further attacks in the area."

"Beyond the immediate tactical manoeuvre of Boko Haram and ISWAP, the resurgence of violence in the Lake Chad Basin also underscores the broader regional challenges of coordination and intelligence-sharing among affected states. Although Mali and Nigeria do not share a common border, the large expanse of the Sahel that straddles them has several porous borders that allow the movement of jihadi elements and their weapons."

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