This is how to defeat Vladimir Putin | Timothy Garton Ash

Putin’s goals include subjugating Ukraine, restoring parts of the Russian empire, destroying NATO credibility, undermining the European Union, and re-establishing Russian influence in eastern Europe. Defeating these ambitions requires a clear strategic purpose and sustained commitment to Ukraine. Russia’s full-scale war has already lasted longer than the first world war, and the conflict is unlikely to be decided at the front because both sides target rear areas, including energy infrastructure, the economy, and morale. Reduced US support makes defense harder but not impossible. European economic support can help Ukraine’s budget through 2027. Even after shooting stops, a ceasefire that freezes hostilities can create new dangers for Ukraine, including internal social tensions and war-related traumas.

"Putin aims to subjugate Ukraine, restore as much as possible of the Russian empire, destroy the credibility of Nato, undermine the European Union and re-establish a Russian sphere of influence over eastern Europe. To prevent him achieving these goals is to defeat him."

"On 11 June, Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine will have lasted longer than the first world war. Ukraine's achievement in holding off a much larger adversary is astonishing. Given the drone-enabled kill zone at the frontline, this war is most unlikely to be decided at the front, but both sides are pummelling each other's rear, hitting energy infrastructure, the economy and morale."

"The withdrawal of US support by President Donald Trump has made the defence of Ukraine more difficult, but not crippled it. The fall of Viktor Orban in Hungary has unblocked 90bn of European economic support, which should see the Ukrainian budget through to the end of 2027."

"Many trajectories are possible but the most likely is that this war grinds on for some time. Yet it won't be over even when it's over. Unlike on VE Day 1945, we won't know who has won at the moment the shooting stops. The arrival of peace most likely in the form of a ceasefire that becomes a longer-lasting freezing of hostilities along the current frontline will be another moment of danger for Ukraine."

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