While Democrats typically lead with younger voters and Republicans with older voters, 2024 polls show a shift. Trump leads among registered voters but ties with likely voters, a deviation from historical patterns.
Historically, broader registered voter demographics have favored Democrats over actual voters. Biden won registered voters by 5 in 2020 but only by 4, Obama had a similar discrepancy in 2012. This trend is flipped in 2024, favoring Trump with registered voters but equalizing among likely voters.
The trend is particularly pronounced in The New York Times/Siena College Poll and CNN polls, showing a significant shift in support from registered voters to likely voters, indicating a change in the usual voting patterns for the two parties.
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