"Artificial intelligence can predict people's health problems over a decade into the future, say scientists. The technology has learned to spot patterns in people's medical records to calculate their risk of more than 1,000 diseases. The researchers say it is like a weather forecast that anticipates a 70% chance of rain but for human health. Their vision is to use the AI model to spot high-risk patients to prevent disease and to help hospitals understand demand in their area, years ahead of time."
"The model called Delphi-2M - uses similar technology to well-known AI chatbots like ChatGPT. AI chatbots are trained to understand patterns of language so they can predict the sequence of words in a sentence. Delphi-2M has been trained to find patterns in anonymous medical records so it can predict what comes next and when. It doesn't predict exact dates, like a heart attack on October 1, but instead estimates the likelihood of 1,231 diseases."
""So, just like weather, where we could have a 70% chance of rain, we can do that for healthcare," Prof Ewan Birney, the interim executive director of the European Molecular Biology Laboratory, told me. "And we can do that not just for one disease, but all diseases at the same time - we've never been able to do that before. I'm excited," he said."
Delphi-2M is an AI model trained on anonymized UK medical records, including hospital admissions, GP records and lifestyle data from over 400,000 UK Biobank participants. The model uses pattern-learning techniques similar to large language models to estimate the likelihood of 1,231 diseases rather than exact event dates. Validation was performed on other Biobank participants and on 1.9 million Danish medical records, showing good calibration in Denmark. Intended applications include identifying high-risk patients for prevention and helping hospitals forecast future demand years in advance, using probabilistic risk estimates analogous to weather forecasts.
Read at www.bbc.com
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