The central issue in the campaign is Emmanuel Macron himself... a large part of the French electorate is determined - rightly or wrongly - to deliver a kicking to President Macron after seven years in power.
The miscast Hayer has run a poor European campaign but the fault is not hers alone. Some leading figures in Macronworld have been absent without leave. The government's line has been inconsistent and confused.
Macron's clever young Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, wiped the floor with Bardella in their one-on-one TV debate last month. Since then, Bardella's lead in the daily IFOP tracking poll for Le Figaro has increased from 16 points to 18 points.
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