People have wised up to the fact that the labor market isn't tight anymore, and the Fed doesn't seem like it wants to get ahead of the curve on a softer labor market, HousingWire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami said. So, the bond market is mindful of this as it wants to avoid getting caught off guard if jobs week shows another week of the labor market getting softer.
For the summer, the labor market data is the biggest driver of where rates can go; if we do see more material weakness in the labor data, rates can go lower; if it firms up, rates can stay elevated.
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